What’s going to happen?

I’ve been reading books, articles and e-mails about complexity, the economic and political situation, and technology for years now, trying to get a handle on what is going to happen to life on earth in the near future (while I might be alive). I get all kinds of mixed signals, and I seem to change my mind almost daily about what it all means.

Should we switch to nuclear? Today I stumbled across a website from South Australia, where I lived as a grad student in the 80s, that promoted nuclear as the only option that would save us. We could scale it down, bury the reactors, recycle the waste. No problem. But if we don’t, renewables won’t save us.

I got to the pro-nuclear site by scanning a comment from a YouTube video that I viewed as a response to an e-mail I received from a group I signed up with while attending an environmental law conference in Eugene this past March. This group is promoting feed-in tariffs as the way to get to renewables fast. Great idea — utilities will pay you to deliver your renewable energy electricity to the grid; a guaranteed, 20-year contract. Germany and Ontario, Canada have used this system to become renewable energy giants.

So, renewables, nuclear, or what about A Better Place? On my way home from tutoring at Clatsop Community College (that’s another story) today, I listened to a podcast from none other than TwitTV (now that’s a name!) about a company I’ve heard of – A Better Place – that is already providing battery switching and charging stations to customers in Israel and Australia, and plans to revolutionize the EV industry by using a cell phone model and sell the service of keeping up your electric car with high-tech equipment and software. With more and more EVs coming to market, is the electric car the future? Or the plug-in hybrid? Or what?

My friends Christopher and Caren are not so hot on most of this technology. They’re concerned with the energy needed to build things at present, which comes from fossil fuels. We’re running out, and while we do so, we’re causing havoc with the climate, and the weather. They’d like to see the local economy decoupled from the world economy that’s bringing us down the capitalist road to death and destruction. I certainly see their point, and most of the data and information I’ve seen (along with my gut feeling) seems to point in a direction down to the red guy’s place.

Just tonight I saw a headline from the wonderful summary I get of the environmental news from Sightline Institute that said that scientists now say we have just 5 years to get a handle on carbon emissions, or we’re doomed. It wasn’t the top headline, and it certainly wasn’t in our paper tonight. Are these scientists right? Are they wrong? What can I do?

We just had a primary election to pick a Democrat and a Republican to face off in January to become the next rep to Congress from our local district. I didn’t vote, since I’m a member of the Pacific Green Party (see the Confesssional). The major parties’ candidates didn’t really talk about the climate crisis, or environmental issues in general. The talk in elections these days is mostly about jobs and the economy. If you believe the mainstream, we need to continue along on our growth path, and just destroy the planet on a grander and faster scale. I long ago gave up on the major parties because they don’t seem to get it. The Greens are the only political party to embrace environmental ideals, and their other positions align much closer to mine than any other party. They advocate against nuclear, for solar, wind, etc. Are they right? Should I be pro-wind, even if it’s corporate wind?

So, the politicians and politics aren’t helping. They seem to be making matters worse, as beautifully illustrated in the campaign to make private liquor sales possible in Washington state. Costco spent $22 million on this campaign. But business in general is reluctant to contribute a dime to campaigns to help us solve the energy and environmental conundrum I’m talking about here. Contributions to candidates and ballot measures run into the millions, but we can’t solve the education, environment or medicine issues of our day?

Some days I think that we’ll muddle through this. The recession has decreased demand for everything, and slowed development. The paving of the planet slowed, yes?

Some days I don’t think so. Our community college lays off 40% of its faculty. My students can’t get 5th grade math. My kid says school is useless. The paper shows comments from people on the street that say we should continue to pare down government, and create jobs at any risk.

I’ve got friends that say we’re doomed and those that say it’ll be all right. NPR talks about the latest green venture; Democracy Now pans the same venture. More oil is discovered in Brazil; oil fields in Saudi Arabia are dwindling. Recycle, don’t recycle. Get natural gas from America, but don’t frack. Get oil from Canada; don’t build the Keystone XL. We have plenty of coal. Or not. Think global, act local? The Tea Party; #Occupy. Enough to make you scream!

I’ve been wavering on what to do about all this for years. I know from complexity science that it’s possible that my actions will influence the future, and not in any way I can determine. Every time I think that doing something local is all I can do, someone or something tells me that the world situation is so important I have to do something in that huge arena.

The prophets, futurists, priests, and politicians all say they can predict the future, and that we should believe them and act accordingly. The scientists (hey, that includes me!) try to predict the future with models, and make measured statements about what the data say. All of them have been wrong more than right, but there’s no way to know who’s right on any given day or for any given prediction.

Is it all going to end in December 2012? Is Armegeddon near? The tsunami is going to hit us any day now, right? Is it the end of the world as we know it? Should I feel fine?

Maybe it’s better not to know.