Readers have expressed interest in open threads devoted to local issues. Now topping the list of topics for Cannon Beach is the potential closure of Cannon Beach Elementary School.
The Cannon Beach City Council is deliberating on a resolution that supports the idea of closing the elementary school at the end of this academic year. The resolution is based on concerns about tsunami preparedness and structural problems that make the school unsafe in the event of an earthquake. If the Council passes this resolution, and the School District agrees, then students attending Cannon Beach Elementary School would be bussed to Seaside next fall.
What do you think? The floor is yours.
The Cannon Beach City Council is considering a resolution that requests the Seaside School District move the students and staff out of the existing Cannon Beach Grade School to Seaside Heights Grade School. The resolution was based the observation that the CB Grade School is the most at risk school for a tsunami on the Oregon coast. Even under the best circumstances, there isn’t enough time to evacuate the grade school in the event of a Cascadia tsunami. To make matters worse, the grade school will fair poorly in the earthquake, causing injuries and making it difficult to evacuate to safety. The School District is already planning to move the four schools that are in the tsunami inundation zone up to land near Seaside Heights Grade School to make sure all the students are safe in a Cascadia event. The question the Council is addressing is why wait to move the Cannon Beach students and staff to safety. The District has indicated that here is enough room at Seaside Heights to move the students and teachers, and keep them in their own classrooms. This is in keeping with the District’s plan for a campus style facility where each community would have their own grade schools at a common site.
Both the City Council and the School District are showing real leadership in addressing the risk from the Cascadia earthquake/tsunami. Recent research by Chris Goldfinger of OSU, shows they are right in doing so. Chris Goldfinger’s research has shown that there is a 15% chance of a full rupture in the next 50 years. He also makes the point that we now have enough data to apply other methods of calculating its likelihood. Using a method that Boeing uses to figure out failure of critical components in their airplanes, the likelihood of a full rupture is 25% in the next fifty years. This is sobering. It gets worse. It turns out that the southern portion of the fault ruptures more frequently than a full rupture and its likelihood is 85% in the next 50 years (using failure analysis). We need to be working steadily and deliberately towards a solution of getting our schools out of harms way.
The resolution by the Council to act on this drew a lively response against it by local parents. They pointed out that they want to be close to their kids. They like the teachers and the education their kids receive at the school. They feel that a school is at the heart of any community. They are worried they will be cut off from their kids following a Cascadia event. Some acknowledge the risk but are hoping that their kids can be at the school until the district moves it in the future. The District has let all parent’s know of the risk and lets parents move their kids to the other grade schools if they are concerned.
This is not a new debate. Rather, it is latest chapter in an ongoing debate that began about 20 years ago with the City’s Blue Ribbon Committee that looked into the school relocation. The basic problem is that no location in Cannon Beach for the school has been found that meets widespread community support. The Spruce Park site, the traditional location ran into neighborhood opposition and opposition from local environmentalists. The RV park location foundered on poor soils. No new land outside the City was available or had its own problems.
In the short term, it makes sense to move the students and staff to a safer location. It the meantime, it maybe that Cannon Beach parent’s are energized enough to look anew for a feasible school location and to do the work necessary to convince the entire community of the need and merits of keeping a grade school in Cannon Beach. In previous efforts, the idea of a new school that was both a school and an art/community center was considered. This new location will need to be above the tsunami inundation zone, on reasonable slope and soils and have good access to roads and utilities. In addition, its zoning will need to be successfully changed to allow a school.
While the City Council is drawing the heat for the resolution, the real decision for moving the students and for creating a new school at a new site (whether in Cannon Beach or Seaside) rests with the School District. The City Council is taking responsibility for the lives and safety of its citizens and visitors. They are acting so that the tragedy of loosing 80 students as happened in the grade school in Ookawa, Japan and other Japanese coastal communities, does not happen here. The resolution, by itself, doesn’t move the school. It does point out that something needs to be done.
Public reflection on this issue can contribute to our education, regardless of what is decided by the CB Council and School Board.
Past is prologue. Most of the past discussion about alternate school locations focused on two possible sites — the RV Park and Spruce Forest Reserve, neither of which proved workable. I was interested in a third location — upland property on the north side of Elk Creek Road, near the entrance to the Ecola Forest Reserve. That site was discarded by leaders as a possible location for the school; and after variances were granted, it was developed into what is now an apartment/condo complex.
I recall some resistance around that time to the school being moved anywhere east of Hw 101. Now that appears to be the safest option — either east of the highway somewhere in Cannon Beach, or to a shared district campus somewhere north.
It’s sobering to walk around Cannon Beach School and gaze at all those beautiful murals children have painted over the years to show their connection with this community. Whatever happens, I pray that special place will continue to play a vital role in community education. It would be a shame if that area were simply displaced by condos.
Seems to me that if the Cannon Beach School is a dangerous place to be in a tsunami, then so is most of downtown Cannon Beach. If a tsunami happens during the school day, my guess is that there would be a lot more than a 100 or so people in equal or greater danger. If the City Council is so concerned for the kids, why not the tourists, or the other residents in town? Why not move the whole town a mile or two up the hill?
Actually, the City has been working long and hard at figuring out how to save people in the case of the Cascadia earthquake/tsunami. The Emergency Preparedness Committee was originally an ad hoc committee and was turned into a standing committee. It worked to develop one of the first emergency operations plans in the state that looked at what to do in the case of Cascadia. It now has yearly public educational meetings. It is also working to revamp the tsunami evacuation routes and has been working on concepts to replace the bridge. The City staff has its own committee (PERC) which looks at the City’s emergency response, coordination with the County and State emergency plans, and upgrading city infrastructure. The City has looked at saving residents and visitors by rebuilding City Hall so it could be a safe haven for people unable to get high ground. The City has a national reputation for its efforts, especially significant for a town our size. Are we where we should be? No, but it is not for lack of interest or effort. This is tough stuff. Moving a town is a logical response, but you should check out the difficulty in doing so even after the event http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/01/world/asia/in-babanakayama-japan-road-to-future-leads-nowhere.html?emc=eta1.
The Cannon Beach Conference Center is home to many children who visit it. If they move the Cannon Beach Elementary School, why not move CBCC, Sea Ranch, Breakers Point, Elk Creek Lodge and every other ocean front property in town because they may or may not have children in it when the Cascadia Tsunami hits.
Real estate market taking schools from children and families for condos.
My family braved the tsunami inundation zone last night and took in the finale show of “Annie Get Your Gun” at the Coaster Theatre. It was great to see friends on stage and in the full-house audience.
Before the show Jennifer and I visited with a friend who attended the first public hearing on the school closure issue. A couple of points stood out to me in our conversation.
1) The bridge across Ecola Creek on the north end of downtown should be brought up to earthquake standards. This should have been done many years ago, even if a school and conference center weren’t in that location. Our friend pointed out that when visitors use the north entrance on the way into town, many of them will naturally go that direction in the event of a sudden evacuation. As long as that bridge is substandard, downtown Cannon Beach is unprepared for a tsunami.
2) It sounds like practical steps could be taken to make the school safer.
Moving the town is an absurd proposition, in my opinion. So is building a tsunami fortress within the local inundation zone. For Cannon Beach, both fall into the category of swatting flies with sledgehammers.
That said, we should do our best to make sure residents and visitors can get to higher ground in the event of an emergency. And safety problems with public buildings should be fixed. To me those seem like no-brainers that require prompt civic attention.
I certainly understand the need to keep our children safe.. parents want to have there kids in a safe place. What we parents don’t understand is the “sudden” interest of the city council to get involved and support a decision that has not yet been made … or has it and we just don’t know about that yet. The rumors are swirling. The city’s own ” expert” Jay Raskin even admitted, once asked by a concerned parent, that if a few things were done it would make the school “safer” not completely safe but safer.. 1. remove the awning. 2. he said the portable classrooms were the safest part of the building, let’s use them for full-time classrooms. Perhaps one more “portable” classroom could be purchased and used.
Our school is important to this town. The school district should be careful that they don’t piss us (parents) off so much that we just go out and start a charter or private school and then they will lose the Cannon Beach cash completely..
I think the idea of a charter or private school is a very interesting one. Regardless of how this issue goes maybe that would be something to consider. It would give parents more say in what goes on in their child’s education. And it might draw the community into more involvement in the school. Hmmm…
How much do you think they can sell Cannon Beach Elementary School property estate? What is it’s value?
Think about it. When you come into town, the very first thing you see crossing the bridge. How much is it worth??
I think more than you realize.
Any of the solutions to moving the school out of harm’s way will require funding, whether it stays in Cannon Beach or not. The funding path to keeping it in Cannon Beach just got a bit easier with a report done by Ken Goettel’s on behalf of Oregon Emergency Management. Ken is a consultant who does benefit cost analysis for natural hazard projects. Basically he looked at ratio between the benefits of a wide range of Cascadia tsunami mitigation measures, the costs of the measures. The size and likelihood of the event were factored in. What he found was that these tsunami mitigation projects have a score of 16 which is quite high. It means that tsunami mitigation projects go towards the top of the list for FEMA Pre-Disaster Mitigation grant program funding, even as FEMA’s federal budget is cut along with so many other programs.
The maximum funding for PDM grants is $3 million per project and there are match requirements. However, relocating the Cannon Beach Grade school would be a prime candidate for such funding. Since PDM grants are per project, having Cannon Beach as a separate project may help in the overall funding for the relocation of the four district schools that are at risk.
As has been mentioned (although on with a negative connotation), selling the existing school properties will be one component for relocating the four District school’s in harm’s way. In Waldport they are looking at a FEMA buyout or the school property so that they can use the proceeds to build the school on higher ground. Take it as advantage that we may be able to get more on the open market. Rather that being a justification for relocating the schools, selling property is one way of keeping the eventual bond measure done. A note of caution, the title of the Cannon Beach School property is quite complicated and I wouldn’t be surprised if that is the case for the other school properties.
Relocating the school is a District responsibility, but the City can get involved by helping find a site for the District. If Cannon Beach citizens want to shift the tax burden of the CB school to just ourselves rather than share it District wide, we could consider building a school (and art center/community center?) here and see if the District would agree to leasing the school rather than owning it. We could incorporate post disaster shelter planning for the school as well.
We also need to keep reminding ourselves that Broadway Middle School and the High School need to be relocated as well. Being from Cannon Beach doesn’t give our students any special pass when they go on to the higher grades.
The resolution seems to finally grabbed people’s attention. Let’s use the opportunity to figure out this complicated problem.
Here is Ken’s, et al’s report:
Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest
Kenneth Goettel1, Althea Rizzo2, Dennis Sigrist2, Eddie Bernard3
The death total in a major Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) tsunami may be comparable to the Tohoku tsunami – in the tens of thousands. To date, tsunami risk reduction activities have been almost exclusively hazard mapping and evacuation planning. Reducing deaths in locations where evacuation to high ground is impossible in the short time between ground shaking and arrival of tsunamis requires measures such as vertical evacuation facilities or engineered pathways to safe ground. Yet, very few, if any, such tsunami mitigation projects have been done. In contrast, many tornado safe room and earthquake mitigation projects driven entirely or in largely by life safety have been done with costs in the billions of dollars.
The absence of tsunami mitigation measures results from the belief that tsunamis are too infrequent and the costs too high to justify life safety mitigation measures. A simple analysis based on return periods, death rates, and the geographic distribution of high risk areas for these hazards demonstrates that this belief is incorrect: well-engineered tsunami mitigation projects are more cost-effective with higher benefit-cost ratios than almost all tornado or earthquake mitigation projects.
Goldfinger’s paleoseismic studies of CSZ turbidites indicate return periods for major CSZ tsunamis of about 250-500 years (USGS Prof. Paper 1661-F in press). Tsunami return periods are comparable to those for major earthquakes at a given location in high seismic areas and are much shorter than those for tornados at any location which range from >4,000 to >16,000 years for >EF2 and >EF4 tornadoes, respectively.
The average earthquake death rate in the US over the past 100-years is about 1/year, or about 30/year including the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. The average death rate for tornadoes is about 90/year. For CSZ tsunamis, the estimated average death rate ranges from about 20/year (10,000 every 500 years) to 80/year (20,000 every 250 years). Thus, the long term deaths rates from tsunamis, earthquakes and tornadoes are comparable.
High hazard areas for tornadoes and earthquakes cover ~40% and ~15% of the contiguous US, ~1,250,000 and ~500,000 square miles, respectively. In marked contrast, tsunami life safety risk is concentrated in communities with significant populations in areas where evacuation to high ground is impossible: probably <4,000 square miles or <0.1% of the US. The geographic distribution of life safety risk profoundly affects the economics of tsunami life safety mitigation projects.
Consider a tsunami life safety project which saves an average of one life per year (500 lives per 500 years). Using FEMA’s value of human life ($5.8 million), 7% discount rate and a 50-year project useful lifetime, the net present value of avoided deaths is $80 million. Thus, the benefit-cost ratio would be about 16 or about 80 for tsunami mitigation projects which cost $5 million or $1 million, respectively. These rough calculations indicate that tsunami mitigation projects in high risk locations are economically justified. More importantly, these results indicate that national and local priorities for natural hazard mitigation should be reconsidered, with tsunami mitigation given a very high priority.
1Goettel & Associates Inc.
2Oregon Emergency Management
3NOAA/PMEL
Goettel, Kenneth, Althea Rizzo, Dennis Sigrist, and Eddie Bernard, Economics of Tsunami Mitigation in the Pacific Northwest, Abstract NH23B-03 presented at 2011 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, CA, 5-9 Dec.
Should government sell public property to developers in tsunami inundation zones to raise money to move people away from tsunami inundation zones?
Dear Community of Cannon Beach,
We moved here in 1988 and have raised our four children in Cannon Beach. One of our primary reasons for coming to this community was CB elementary school. Before moving to Cannon Beach I spent many hours talking with individuals and business owners about the school. The overwhelming reply was that it was the center of community activity with a extraordinary faculty and administration. If I were looking now, and was aware that the school would be closed, we would surely have chosen somewhere else.
If the primary intent were safety, then the district should start with the high school. It has many more students who would be trapped if both bridges are destroyed after a large earthquake. Broadway school isn’t much better off with terrible access to high ground if the bridge goes out.
Yes we know that CB is potentially more at risk, but if a large earthquake like the one in Japan hits, all three schools will be gone. We also know that it needs some work, all of the schools do.
Sadly, this is about money. We went through this years ago and found at that time that Cannon Beach was supporting the district with almost 40% of it’s tax base. Correct me if I am wrong, but I seem to remember that the city gave the property to the district for $1.00. Since we have lost many of our family’s because of the high price of real estate, we have become more of a bedroom community and the district sees us us weaker.
They are only going to listen if a significant group of parents and community members tell them that this is unacceptable. Better yet if someone is an attorney and would be willing to take the district to court if it comes to that. If they sell the property to a large hotel, or shopping center, they will be able to use that money to help support a financially challenged district. Yes, there will be some temporary jobs for those who design and build the new structures, but something inexplicable will be gone forever. Inexplicable to those who only think with their heads instead of their hearts. Our school is our heartbeat, it keeps us young, alive, and healthy. Removing our school will be a serious deterrent towards bringing new family’s to this town who want to be a part of their children’s young life’s and life experiences. I had children in CB elementary from 1988-2005, and it not only enriched the life’s of my children, but mine as well. I felt connected and welcome. When I attended events at the other schools in the district, I felt like an intruder and outsider. Maybe that is the nature of a much larger institution.
Cannon Beach has changed, and many wonderful family’s and individuals have left for one reason or another. That makes it is all the more important to retain the unique quality of life we now have here in our community, not Leisure World.
The district can only take the school away if we let it. We fought this years ago and won because we were unwilling to let it be taken from us. Our taxes give us the right to keep our school here, or have a new one built in our town.
Some would say you have to look at the bigger picture. I would say a solid community foundation and feeling of belonging IS the bigger picture. I would caution you to eliminate anyone who either lives out of town, or stands to profit in any way, from being involved in the decision process.
I really appreciate your letter, Tom. As a proud graduate of that school, and with many family and friends having gone there, I completely agree with your ideas. Thanks for taking the time, and sharing your ideas! I do hope that the town will come together and stand up for keeping the school.
The City Council has been discussing building a $4 MILLION City Hall tsunami evacuation building. Well, why not build that tsunami evacuation building but instead of saving City Hall why not save the children instead?
This is doable. It’s just a matter of proper priorities. And speaking of proper priorities… if tsunami safety was such a pressing issue for the City Council, why are they playing around with $4 million buildings and completely ignoring a foot bridge over Ecola Creek that could evacuate to high ground all of downtown (along with the grade school). This is all kind of frustrating to watch. The big, showy moves seems to be getting priority over the small, common sense, big impact stuff.
Here is article from yesterday’s Daily Journal of Commerce ( about the District’s plan to relocate the four schools. It mentions the problem that the available high ground for relocating schools and the like are outside of the city urban growth boundaries and zoning goals discourage enlarging them. As I mentioned before, this issue is complicated.
http://djcoregon.com/news/2012/01/05/tsunami-threat-has-oregon-coast-school-district-unsettled/