Cap and trade won’t solve any problems?

Now that the second walkout by the Republicans in the Oregon Legislature in two years has occurred over cap and trade, and the 2020 short session has been declared over, without cap and trade legislation (or much else) passing, I feel it is time to publish this blog piece to the Upper Left Edge.

A recent guest column in our local newspaper, The Astorian, was commenting on an Oregon legislature bill, SB 1530, which would use a cap-and-trade system to lower carbon emissions in Oregon. This bill is an edited version of another bill from last session (HB 2020), which ended in ignominious defeat when Republicans walked out of the state Senate until Democrats cancelled the bill. The same thing is happening this year, to almost no notice. Anyway, the column got me angry, because it basically showed selfishness on the part of the author, without giving much consideration to the rest of humanity, other species, and our beautiful planet. So here is my reply, written as if I were submitting it as a guest column (notice the rhetorical copycat style):

I was deeply saddened to read the guest column by Bill Kerr published by The Astorian on February 20, 2020, taking a strong position against the cap-and-trade bill being considered by state lawmakers. Not only did the content ignore some very basic realities about our situation, but it also lacked any perspective from key voices in our community and elsewhere that have been talking about the climate emergency. I am disappointed Mr. Kerr does not understand what makes the North Coast, and everywhere else, tick.

Mr. Kerr is deeply concerned about the impact cap and trade could have on Wauna Mill operations, as well as the budgets of his co-workers and the families of our rural community. I’m worried about the impacts that climate disruption could have on this community if we don’t do something big, and soon, to both reduce our carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of the carbon already emitted.

According to Mr. Kerr, there is no question that both consumers and businesses are going to see increased costs if the cap-and-trade bill under consideration is adopted. It will raise gas prices, it will raise natural gas rates, and it will make it harder for trade-exposed businesses like the Wauna Mill to remain competitive in global markets. That is exactly what the bill under consideration is supposed to do – use the market to both reduce activities that emit carbon, and spur on activities that don’t!

I think that the cap and trade bill has serious problems, mostly because it doesn’t take the situation seriously enough to move quickly and immediately to cap and reduce emissions. In this sense, I agree with Mr. Kerr that Senate Bill 1530 is worse — yes, worse — than HB 2020 in several areas.

I also take issue with the regional approach to regulating transportation. We need higher gasoline and diesel fuel prices now to spur on alternatives. AAA estimates of as much as 22 cents per gallon rise in gas prices? That is not nearly enough to get people and companies to stop using carbon-based fuels for transportation, one of the key ways we can reduce carbon emissions.

Mr. Kerr claims the Wauna Mill will experience increases in transportation costs on day one of the program because the vast majority of its product moves out of the region by freight through the Portland metro area, which is part of the first tier of the program in the bill. Yes, there’s no question the mill’s operations will be affected by this bill. And that’s as it should be. Companies like Wauna and their owners, the Koch brothers’ Georgia Pacific, are better situated to quickly reduce their use of carbon-based fuels, and the effects of their efforts to do so would greatly enhance the environment of our community and the Portland metro area. If, as Mr. Kerr claims, the local pulp and paper industry is committed to sustainability through the use of renewable energy and high efficiency, then they should be supportive of Senate Bill 1530, which would make it possible for them to cash in on their sustainability efforts by selling emissions credits to other emitters.

Yes, Mr. Kerr, cap-and-trade is, in effect, a tax on carbon-based energy usage, and yes, it’s a regulatory hassle. But it is exactly the recipe for continued investment in the Wauna mill. Operations may need to change, but it may be possible to actually increase profit, and better the working conditions for your union members, not the other way around, as you claim. I spent more than 13 years working in toxics and waste reduction and sustainability and technical assistance to industry at the Washington State Department of Ecology, and the Oregon Department of Environmental Quality has a similar program to help companies such as Wauna to not only comply with regulations, but to increase their profits while reducing their impact on the environment. I can already think of ways Wauna could benefit from this legislation.

Like many of those we tried to help in Washington, Mr. Kerr seems to suffer from lack of imagination and being stuck in the past and the present. Unfortunately, we don’t have time for business as usual to continue. And like many of the fossil fuel projects in this area that have folded in the past decade as investors realized that their investments would not yield any profits, businesses like Wauna will have to change, cap-and-trade or no cap-and-trade.

The claim that if Oregon were to go to zero carbon emissions tomorrow, that the reduction in total global carbon emissions would be less than 1% may be true. If so, that would be an amazing start to reducing emissions by 50% by 2030 and close to 100% by 2050, which is the formula put forward by most scientists working on this problem for saving human civilization from utter chaos. The pulp and paper industry, as it’s constituted today, will not be around much longer if we are to reach these goals. It very well may be somewhat painful for Wauna employees, as well as the rest of us, to adapt to the realities of the climate emergency, and start to change our ways to help fight off its worst effects, but it will certainly be much more painful pretty soon if we don’t start now.

Bob Goldberg is a chemical engineer who spent most of his career in alternative energy research and technical assistance to industry to reduce their environmental footprint. He currently lives in Astoria.